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Martingale betting debunked planned sledge grits band on bet

Martingale betting debunked planned

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Clinical implication was represented by miss. A critique of statistical hypothesis testing in clinical research. Full Text Available Many have documented the difficulty of using the current paradigm of Randomized Controlled Trials RCTs to test and validate the effectiveness of alternative medical systems such as Ayurveda. This paper critiques the applicability of RCTs for all clinical knowledge-seeking endeavors, of which Ayurveda research is a part. This is done by examining statistical hypothesis testing , the underlying foundation of RCTs, from a practical and philosophical perspective.

In the philosophical critique, the two main worldviews of probability are that of the Bayesian and the frequentist. The frequentist worldview is a special case of the Bayesian worldview requiring the unrealistic assumptions of knowing nothing about the universe and believing that all observations are unrelated to each other. Many have claimed that the first belief is necessary for science, and this claim is debunked by comparing variations in learning with different prior beliefs.

Moving beyond the Bayesian and frequentist worldviews, the notion of hypothesis testing itself is challenged on the grounds that a hypothesis is an unclear distinction, and assigning a probability on an unclear distinction is an exercise that does not lead to clarity of action.

This critique is of the theory itself and not any particular application of statistical hypothesis testing. A decision-making frame is proposed as a way of both addressing this critique and transcending ideological debates on probability.

An example of a Bayesian decision-making approach is shown as an alternative to statistical hypothesis testing , utilizing data from a past clinical trial that studied the effect of Aspirin on heart attacks in a sample population of doctors. As a big reason for the prevalence of RCTs in academia is legislation requiring it, the ethics of legislating the use of statistical methods for clinical research is also examined. Chi-square test and its application in hypothesis testing.

Full Text Available In medical research, there are studies which often collect data on categorical variables that can be summarized as a series of counts. These counts are commonly arranged in a tabular format known as a contingency table. The chi-square test statistic can be used to evaluate whether there is an association between the rows and columns in a contingency table.

More specifically, this statistic can be used to determine whether there is any difference between the study groups in the proportions of the risk factor of interest. Chi-square test and the logic of hypothesis testing were developed by Karl Pearson.

This article describes in detail what is a chi-square test , on which type of data it is used, the assumptions associated with its application, how to manually calculate it and how to make use of an online calculator for calculating the Chi-square statistics and its associated P-value.

Objective Multiple hypothesis testing or multiple testing refers to testing more than one hypothesis within a single analysis, and can inflate the Type I error rate false positives within a study. The aim of this review was to quantify multiple testing in recent large clinical studies in the otolaryngology literature and to discuss strategies to address this potential problem.

Review methods Articles were reviewed to determine whether the authors tested greater than five hypotheses in at least one family of inferences. For the articles meeting this criterion for multiple testing , Type I error rates were calculated and statistical correction was applied to the reported results. Conclusion Multiple testing is common in recent large clinical studies in otolaryngology and deserves closer attention from researchers, reviewers and editors.

Strategies for adjusting for multiple testing are discussed. Full Text Available Water pollution detection is of great importance in water conservation. In this paper, the water pollution detection problems of the network and of the node in sensor networks are discussed.

The detection problems in both cases of the distribution of the monitoring noise being normal and nonnormal are considered. The pollution detection problems are analyzed based on hypothesis testing theory firstly; then, the specific detection algorithms are given. Finally, two implementation examples are given to illustrate how the proposed detection methods are used in the water pollution detection in sensor networks and prove the effectiveness of the proposed detection methods.

Introduction to Robust Estimation and Hypothesis Testing. This revised book provides a thorough explanation of the foundation of robust methods , incorporating the latest updates on R and S-Plus, robust ANOVA Analysis of Variance and regression. It guides advanced students and other professionals through the basic strategies used for developing practical solutions to problems, and provides a brief background on the foundations of modern methods , placing the new methods in historical context. Author Rand Wilcox includes chapter exercises and many real-world examples that illustrate how various methods perform in different situations.

Introduction to R. Mulltilocus DNA fingerprinting methods have been used extensively to address genetic issues in wildlife populations. Hypotheses concerning population subdivision and differing levels of diversity can be addressed through the use of the similarity index S , a band-sharing coeffic Hypothesis testing is one of the more difficult concepts for students to master in a basic, undergraduate statistics course.

Students often are puzzled as to why statisticians simply don't calculate the probability that a hypothesis is true. This article presents an exercise that forces students to lay out on their own a procedure for testing a…. Summary on Bayes estimation and hypothesis testing. Many developments have taken place and are still taking place in the areas of decision theory and group decision making.

Two aspects, namely that of estimation and tests of hypotheses, will be looked into. This is the area of statistical inference mainly concerned with Mathematical Statistics. A novel hypothesis splitting method implementation for multi- hypothesis filters. The paper presents a multi- hypothesis filter library featuring a novel method for splitting Gaussians into ones with smaller variances.

The multi- hypothesis filters commonly approximate the distribution tran The method generalizes to other problems. THis is illustrated by applying the method to camera calibration images and MRI of the midsagittal plane for gray and white matter separation and segmentation We propose a novel and efficient way of performing local image segmentation.

For many applications a threshold of pixel intensities is sufficient but determine the appropriate threshold value can be difficult. In cases with large global intensity variation the threshold value has to be adapted We propose a method based on large scale hypothesis testing with a consistent method for selecting an appropriate threshold for the given data. By estimating the background distribution we characterize the segment of interest as a set of outliers with a certain probability based on the estimated Testing Happiness Hypothesis among the Elderly.

Full Text Available We use a rich data set that allows us to test different happiness hypotheses employing four methodological approaches. We find that older people in Uruguay have a tendency to report themselves happy when they are married, when they have higher standards of health and when they earn higher levels of income or they consider that their income is suitable for their standard of living.

On the contrary, they report lower levels of happiness when they live alone and when their nutrition is insufficient. We also find that education has no clear impact on happiness. We think that our study is a contribution to the study of those factors that can explain happiness among the elderly in Latin American countries.

Future work will focus on enhanced empirical analysis and in extending our study to other countries. Testing the Conditional Convergence Hypothesis for Pakistan. Full Text Available This study investigates for the existence or non-existence of conditional convergence across the provinces of Pakistan.

The annual output data from to is pooled for the four Pakistani provinces. The cross-sectional specific effects, the time specific effects, the manufacturing output, and the structural variable for aggregate supply or production shocks are used to control the different steady state levels of per capita incomes of thedifferent provinces. The equation for conditional convergence is estimated through generalized least squares GLS method , after controlling for the different steady states of the provinces.

At the same time manufacturing output is also statistically significant and positively affects the economic growth in the provinces. However the structural variable is not statistically significant. Approaches to informed consent for hypothesis-testing and hypothesis -generating clinical genomics research. Massively-parallel sequencing MPS technologies create challenges for informed consent of research participants given the enormous scale of the data and the wide range of potential results.

We propose that the consent process in these studies be based on whether they use MPS to test a hypothesis or to generate hypotheses. To demonstrate the differences in these approaches to informed consent, we describe the consent processes for two MPS studies. The purpose of our hypothesis-testing study is to elucidate the etiology of rare phenotypes using MPS.

The purpose of our hypothesis -generating study is to test the feasibility of using MPS to generate clinical hypotheses, and to approach the return of results as an experimental manipulation. Issues to consider in both designs include: volume and nature of the potential results, primary versus secondary results, return of individual results, duty to warn, length of interaction, target population, and privacy and confidentiality.

The categorization of MPS studies as hypothesis-testing versus hypothesis -generating can help to clarify the issue of so-called incidental or secondary results for the consent process, and aid the communication of the research goals to study participants.

Quantitative methods in ethnobotany and ethnopharmacology: considering the overall flora-- hypothesis testing for over- and underused plant families with the Bayesian approach. We introduce and explain the advantages of the Bayesian approach and exemplify the method with an analysis of the medicinal flora of Campania, Italy. The Bayesian approach is a new method , which allows to compare medicinal floras with the overall flora of a given area and to investigate over- and underused plant families.

In contrast to previously used methods regression analysis and binomial method it considers the inherent uncertainty around the analyzed data. The medicinal flora with species was compiled based on nine studies on local medicinal plant use in Campania. The total flora comprises species belonging to families. Statistical analysis was performed with the Bayesian method and the binomial method. Among the larger plant families we find the Lamiaceae, Rosaceae, and Malvaceae, to be overused in the local medicine of Campania and the Orchidaceae, Caryophyllaceae, Poaceae, and Fabaceae to be underused compared to the overall flora.

Furthermore, do specific medicinal uses tend to be correlated with taxonomic plant groups. For example, are the Monocots heavily used for urological complaints. Testing for over- and underused taxonomic groups of a flora with the Bayesian method is easy to adopt and can readily be calculated in excel spreadsheets using the excel function Inverse beta INV. In contrast to the binomial method the presented method is also suitable for small datasets.

With larger datasets the two methods tend to converge. However, results are generally more conservative with the Bayesian method pointing out fewer families as over- or underused. A default Bayesian hypothesis test for correlations and partial correlations. We propose a default Bayesian hypothesis test for the presence of a correlation or a partial correlation. The test is a direct application of Bayesian techniques for variable selection in regression models.

The test is easy to apply and yields practical advantages that the standard frequentist tests. Cross-system log file analysis for hypothesis testing. Glahn, C. Presented at Empowering Learners for Lifelong Competence Development: pedagogical, organisational and technological issues. April, 10, , Madrid, Spain.

The use of The Three Stooges' films as a source of data in an introductory statistics class is described. The Stooges' films are separated into three populations. Using these populations, students may conduct hypothesis tests with data they collect. Biostatistics series module 2: Overview of hypothesis testing. Full Text Available Hypothesis testing or statistical inference is one of the major applications of biostatistics. Much of medical research begins with a research question that can be framed as a hypothesis.

Inferential statistics begins with a null hypothesis that reflects the conservative position of no change or no difference in comparison to baseline or between groups. Usually, the researcher has reason to believe that there is some effect or some difference which is the alternative hypothesis. The researcher therefore proceeds to study samples and measure outcomes in the hope of generating evidence strong enough for the statistician to be able to reject the null hypothesis.

The concept of the P value is almost universally used in hypothesis testing. It denotes the probability of obtaining by chance a result at least as extreme as that observed, even when the null hypothesis is true and no real difference exists. Usually, if P is hypothesis is rejected and sample results are deemed statistically significant. With the increasing availability of computers and access to specialized statistical software, the drudgery involved in statistical calculations is now a thing of the past, once the learning curve of the software has been traversed.

The life sciences researcher is therefore free to devote oneself to optimally designing the study, carefully selecting the hypothesis tests to be applied, and taking care in conducting the study well. Unfortunately, selecting the right test seems difficult initially. Thinking of the research hypothesis as addressing one of five generic research questions helps in selection of the right hypothesis test. In addition, it is important to be clear about the nature of the variables e.

The same research question may be explored by more than one type of hypothesis test. Null but not void: considerations for hypothesis testing. Standard statistical theory teaches us that once the null and alternative hypotheses have been defined for a parameter, the choice of the statistical test is clear. Standard theory does not teach us how to choose the null or alternative hypothesis appropriate to the scientific question of interest. Neither does it tell us that in some cases, depending on which alternatives are realistic, we may want to define our null hypothesis differently.

Problems in statistical practice are frequently not as pristinely summarized as the classic theory in our textbooks. In this article, we present examples in statistical hypothesis testing in which seemingly simple choices are in fact rich with nuance that, when given full consideration, make the choice of the right hypothesis test much less straightforward.

Published The Delayed Inverse-Depth technique is used to initialize new features in the system and defines a single hypothesis for the initial depth of features with the use of a stochastic technique of triangulation. The introduced HOHCT method is based on the evaluation of statistically compatible hypotheses and a search algorithm designed to exploit the strengths of the Delayed Inverse-Depth technique to achieve good performance results. The performance of the proposed HOHCT is validated with experimental results, in both indoor and outdoor environments, while its costs are compared with other popular approaches.

Scientific research often involves testing more than one hypothesis at a time, which can inflate the probability that a Type I error false discovery will occur. To prevent this Type I error inflation, adjustments can be made to the testing procedure that compensate for the number of tests. Yet many researchers believe that such adjustments are….

Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This second installment of "Explorations in Statistics" delves into test statistics and P values, two concepts fundamental to the test of a scientific null hypothesis.

The essence of a test statistic is that it compares what…. Some consequences of using the Horsfall-Barratt scale for hypothesis testing. Comparing treatment effects by hypothesis testing is a common practice in plant pathology. Nearest percent estimates NPEs of disease severity were compared to Horsfall-Barratt H-B scale data to explore whether there was an effect of assessment method on hypothesis testing.

A simulation model ba We consider the problem of decentralized hypothesis testing in a network of energy harvesting sensors, where sensors make noisy observations of a phenomenon and send quantized information about the phenomenon towards a fusion center.

The fusion center makes a decision about the present hypothesis using the aggregate received data during a time interval. We explicitly consider a scenario under which the messages are sent through parallel access channels towards the fusion center. To avoid limited lifetime issues, we assume each sensor is capable of harvesting all the energy it needs for the communication from the environment.

Each sensor has an energy buffer battery to save its harvested energy for use in other time intervals. Our key contribution is to formulate the problem of decentralized detection in a sensor network with energy harvesting devices. Our analysis is based on a queuing-theoretic model for the battery and we propose a sensor decision design method by considering long term energy management at the sensors.

We show how the performance of the system changes for different battery capacities. We then numerically show how our findings can be used in the design of sensor networks with energy harvesting sensors. Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per individuals. To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study This chapter introduces three applications of Bayesian inference to common and novel issues in second language research.

After a review of the critiques of conventional hypothesis testing , our focus centers on ways Bayesian inference can be used for dealing with missing data, for testing theory-driven substantive hypotheses without a default null…. A large scale test of the gaming-enhancement hypothesis. Full Text Available A growing research literature suggests that regular electronic game play and game-based training programs may confer practically significant benefits to cognitive functioning.

Most evidence supporting this idea, the gaming-enhancement hypothesis , has been collected in small-scale studies of university students and older adults. This research investigated the hypothesis in a general way with a large sample of 1, school-aged children.

Using a Bayesian hypothesis testing approach, evidence for the gaming-enhancement and null hypotheses were compared. Results provided no substantive evidence supporting the idea that having preference for or regularly playing commercially available games was positively associated with reasoning ability. Evidence ranged from equivocal to very strong in support for the null hypothesis over what was predicted. The discussion focuses on the value of Bayesian hypothesis testing for investigating electronic gaming effects, the importance of open science practices, and pre-registered designs to improve the quality of future work.

A growing research literature suggests that regular electronic game play and game-based training programs may confer practically significant benefits to cognitive functioning. Our aim was to examine the relations between young people's gaming experiences and an objective test of reasoning performance. The frequentist implications of optional stopping on Bayesian hypothesis tests.

Null hypothesis significance testing NHST is the most commonly used statistical methodology in psychology. The probability of achieving a value as extreme or more extreme than the statistic obtained from the data is evaluated, and if it is low enough, the null hypothesis is rejected. However, because common experimental practice often clashes with the assumptions underlying NHST, these calculated probabilities are often incorrect.

Most commonly, experimenters use tests that assume that sample sizes are fixed in advance of data collection but then use the data to determine when to stop; in the limit, experimenters can use data monitoring to guarantee that the null hypothesis will be rejected. Bayesian hypothesis testing BHT provides a solution to these ills because the stopping rule used is irrelevant to the calculation of a Bayes factor.

In addition, there are strong mathematical guarantees on the frequentist properties of BHT that are comforting for researchers concerned that stopping rules could influence the Bayes factors produced. Here, we show that these guaranteed bounds have limited scope and often do not apply in psychological research.

Specifically, we quantitatively demonstrate the impact of optional stopping on the resulting Bayes factors in two common situations: 1 when the truth is a combination of the hypotheses, such as in a heterogeneous population, and 2 when a hypothesis is composite-taking multiple parameter values-such as the alternative hypothesis in a t- test. We found that, for these situations, while the Bayesian interpretation remains correct regardless of the stopping rule used, the choice of stopping rule can, in some situations, greatly increase the chance of experimenters finding evidence in the direction they desire.

We suggest ways to control these frequentist implications of stopping rules on BHT. A sequential hypothesis test based on a generalized Azuma inequality. The proof of the bound is of independent interest. This paper derives asymptotic power envelopes for tests of the unit root hypothesis in a zero-mean AR 1 model.

The power envelopes are derived using the limits of experiments approach and are semiparametric in the sense that the underlying error distribution is treated as an unknown This paper presents a test of the educational signaling hypothesis. If employers use education as a signal in the hiring process, they will rely more on education when less is otherwise known about applicants.

We nd that employers are more likely to lower educational standards when an informal, more. Stefanov, K. Koper Eds. Empowering Learners for. In a projective test of the golden section hypothesis , 24 high school students rated themselves and 10 comic strip characters on basis of 12 bipolar constructs. Overall proportion of cartoon figures which subjects assigned to positive poles of constructs was very close to golden section.

Notes that modifications to NHST and interpretations of its outcomes might better suit the needs of modern science. Concludes that NHST is most often useful as…. Since the seminal work in human populations by David Barker and colleagues, several species of animals have been used in the laboratory to test the Developmental Origins of Health and Disease DOHaD hypothesis.

Rats, mice, guinea pigs, sheep, pigs and non-human primates have bee Seemingly absent from the arsenal of currently available "nearly efficient" testing procedures for the unit root hypothesis , i. Hypothesis testing in students: Sequences, stages, and instructional strategies. Six sequences in the development of hypothesis-testing conceptions are proposed, involving a interpretation of the hypothesis ; b the distinction between using theories and testing theories; c the consideration of multiple possibilities; d the relation of theory and data; e the nature of verification and falsification; and f the relation of truth and falsity.

An alternative account is then provided involving three global stages: concrete operations, formal operations, and a postformal metaconstructivestage. Relative advantages and difficulties of the stage and sequence conceptualizations are discussed. Finally, three families of teaching strategy are distinguished, which emphasize, respectively: a social transmission of knowledge; b carefully sequenced empirical experience by the student; and c self-regulated cognitive activity of the student.

It is argued on the basis of Piaget's theory that the last of these plays a crucial role in the construction of such logical reasoning strategies as those involved in testing hypotheses. Mechanisms of eyewitness suggestibility: tests of the explanatory role hypothesis. In a recent paper, Chrobak and Zaragoza Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 3 , , proposed the explanatory role hypothesis , which posits that the likelihood of developing false memories for post-event suggestions is a function of the explanatory function the suggestion serves.

In support of this hypothesis , they provided evidence that participant-witnesses were especially likely to develop false memories for their forced fabrications when their fabrications helped to explain outcomes they had witnessed. In three experiments, we test the generality of the explanatory role hypothesis as a mechanism of eyewitness suggestibility by assessing whether this hypothesis can predict suggestibility errors in a situations where the post-event suggestions are provided by the experimenter as opposed to fabricated by the participant , and b across a variety of memory measures and measures of recollective experience.

In support of the explanatory role hypothesis , participants were more likely to subsequently freely report E1 and recollect the suggestions as part of the witnessed event E2, source test when the post-event suggestion helped to provide a causal explanation for a witnessed outcome than when it did not serve this explanatory role.

Collectively, the results provide strong evidence that the search for explanatory coherence influences people's tendency to misremember witnessing events that were only suggested to them. A test of the reward-value hypothesis. We have argued that different forgetting functions dissociate memory systems.

However, the two tasks, in our previous work, used different reward values. The source memory task used multiple pellets of a preferred food flavor chocolate , whereas the spatial working memory task provided access to a single pellet of standard chow-flavored food at each location. We tested the reward-value hypothesis by using a standard 8-arm radial maze task to compare spatial working memory accuracy of rats rewarded with either multiple chocolate or chow pellets at each location using a between-subjects design.

The reward-value hypothesis predicts superior accuracy for high-valued rewards. We documented equivalent spatial memory accuracy for high- and low-value rewards. Importantly, a h retention interval produced equivalent spatial working memory accuracy for both flavors.

These data are inconsistent with the reward-value hypothesis and suggest that reward value does not explain our earlier findings that source memory survives unusually long retention intervals. Full Text Available Scientific research often involves testing more than one hypothesis at a time, which can inflate the probability that a Type I error false discovery will occur.

This longstanding misconception continues to be perpetuated in textbooks and continues to be cited in journal articles to justify disregard for Type I error inflation. I critically evaluate this myth and examine its rationales and variations. I also make recommendations for improving research practice and pedagogy regarding this problem and regarding multiple testing in general. A test of the domain-specific acculturation strategy hypothesis. Acculturation literature has evolved over the past several decades and has highlighted the dynamic ways in which individuals negotiate experiences in multiple cultural contexts.

The present study extends this literature by testing M. Miller and R. Lim's domain-specific acculturation strategy hypothesis -that individuals might use different acculturation strategies i. Berry, across behavioral and values domains-in 3 independent cluster analyses with Asian American participants. Consistent with theory, a number of acculturation strategy cluster group differences emerged across generational status, acculturative stress, mental health symptoms, and attitudes toward seeking professional psychological help.

Study limitations and future directions for research are discussed. Why is muscularity sexy? Tests of the fitness indicator hypothesis. Evolutionary scientists propose that exaggerated secondary sexual characteristics are cues of genes that increase offspring viability or reproductive success. In six studies the hypothesis that muscularity is one such cue is tested.

As predicted, women rate muscular men as sexier, more physically dominant and volatile, and less committed to their mates than nonmuscular men. Consistent with the inverted-U hypothesis of masculine traits, men with moderate muscularity are rated most attractive. Across three studies, when controlling for other characteristics e.

Testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. In this paper we propose a general method for testing the Granger noncausality hypothesis in stationary nonlinear models of unknown functional form. These tests are based on a Taylor expansion of the nonlinear model around a given point in the sample space.

We study the performance of our tests b A butterfly valve is a type of flow-control device typically used to regulate a fluid flow. This paper presents an estimation of the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution, characteristic life, and B10 life for a concentric butterfly valve based on a statistical analysis of the reliability test data taken before and after the valve improvement.

The difference in the shape and scale parameters between the existing and improved valves is reviewed using a statistical hypothesis test. The test results indicate that the shape parameter of the improved valve is similar to that of the existing valve, and that the scale parameter of the improved valve is found to have increased.

These analysis results are particularly useful for a reliability qualification test and the determination of the service life cycles. A test of the substitution-habitat hypothesis in amphibians. Most examples that support the substitution-habitat hypothesis human-made habitats act as substitutes of original habitat deal with birds and mammals.

We tested this hypothesis in 14 amphibians by using percentage occupancy as a proxy of habitat quality i. We classified water body types as original habitat no or little human influence depending on anatomical, behavioral, or physiological adaptations of each amphibian species.

Ten species had relatively high probabilities 0. Thus, the substitution-habitat hypothesis only partially applies to amphibians because the low occupancy of refuges could be due to the negligible human persecution of this group indicating good conservation status.

However, low occupancy of refuges could also be due to low tolerance of refuge conditions, which could have led to selective extinction or colonization problems due to poor dispersal capabilities. That original habitats had the highest probabilities of occupancy suggests amphibians have a good conservation status in the region.

They also appeared highly adaptable to anthropogenic substitution habitats. A test of the reward-contrast hypothesis. Source memory, a facet of episodic memory, is the memory of the origin of information. Whereas source memory in rats is sustained for at least a week, spatial memory degraded after approximately a day.

Different forgetting functions may suggest that two memory systems source memory and spatial memory are dissociated. However, in previous work, the two tasks used baiting conditions consisting of chocolate and chow flavors; notably, the source memory task used the relatively better flavor.

Thus, according to the reward-contrast hypothesis , when chocolate and chow were presented within the same context i. We tested the reward-contrast hypothesis using baiting configurations designed to produce reward-contrast. The reward-contrast hypothesis predicts that under these conditions, spatial memory will survive a h retention interval. We documented elimination of spatial memory performance after a h retention interval using a reward-contrast baiting pattern. These data suggest that reward contrast does not explain our earlier findings that source memory survives unusually long retention intervals.

The efficient market hypothesis : problems with interpretations of empirical tests. Its axiomatic definition shows how asset prices would behave under assumed conditions. Testing for this price behavior does not make much sense as the conditions in the financial markets are much more complex than the simplified conditions of perfect competition, zero transaction costs and free information used in the formulation of the EMH.

Some recent developments within the tradition of the adaptive market hypothesis are promising regarding development of a falsifiable theory of price formation in financial markets, but are far from giving assurance that we are approaching a new formulation.

An algorithm for testing the efficient market hypothesis. The algorithm optimizes the strategies by dynamically searching for parameters that improve profitability in the training period. The best sets of rules are then applied on the testing period. The results show inconsistency in finding a set of trading rules that performs well in both periods.

Strategies that achieve very good returns in the training period show difficulty in returning positive results in the testing period, this being consistent with the efficient market hypothesis EMH. Bayesian models based on test statistics for multiple hypothesis testing problems. We propose a Bayesian method for the problem of multiple hypothesis testing that is routinely encountered in bioinformatics research, such as the differential gene expression analysis.

Our algorithm is based on modeling the distributions of test statistics under both null and alternative hypotheses. We substantially reduce the complexity of the process of defining posterior model probabilities by modeling the test statistics directly instead of modeling the full data. Computationally, we apply a Bayesian FDR approach to control the number of rejections of null hypotheses.

To check if our model assumptions for the test statistics are valid for various bioinformatics experiments, we also propose a simple graphical model-assessment tool. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate the performance of our models and the utility of the model-assessment tool.

In the end, we apply the proposed methodology to an siRNA screening and a gene expression experiment. Testing the implicit processing hypothesis of precognitive dream experience. Seemingly precognitive prophetic dreams may be a result of one's unconscious processing of environmental cues and having an implicit inference based on these cues manifest itself in one's dreams. We present two studies exploring this implicit processing hypothesis of precognitive dream experience.

Study 1 investigated the relationship between implicit learning, transliminality, and precognitive dream belief and experience. Participants completed the Serial Reaction Time task and several questionnaires. We predicted a positive relationship between the variables. With the exception of relationships between transliminality and precognitive dream belief and experience, this prediction was not supported.

Study 2 tested the hypothesis that differences in the ability to notice subtle cues explicitly might account for precognitive dream beliefs and experiences. Participants completed a modified version of the flicker paradigm.

We predicted a negative relationship between the ability to explicitly detect changes and precognitive dream variables. This relationship was not found. There was also no relationship between precognitive dream belief and experience and implicit change detection. Testing for Marshall-Lerner hypothesis : A panel approach.

The relationship between real exchange rate and trade balances are documented in many theories. One of the theories is the so-called Marshall-Lerner condition. In this study, we seek to test for the validity of Marshall-Lerner hypothesis , i. The paper concludes that Marshal Lerner theory does not hold in bilateral trades in four groups of countries. The trade balances of ASEAN5 are mainly determined by the domestic income level and foreign production cost. Testing the activitystat hypothesis : a randomised controlled trial protocol.

The activitystat hypothesis proposes that when physical activity or energy expenditure is increased or decreased in one domain, there will be a compensatory change in another domain to maintain an overall, stable level of physical activity or energy expenditure. To date, there has been no experimental study primarily designed to test the activitystat hypothesis in adults.

The aim of this trial is to determine the effect of two different imposed exercise loads on total daily energy expenditure and physical activity levels. This study will be a randomised, multi-arm, parallel controlled trial. Participants will be randomly assigned to one of three groups using a computer-generated allocation sequence.

Participants in the Moderate exercise group will receive an additional minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per week for six weeks, and those in the Extensive exercise group will receive an additional minutes of moderate to vigorous physical activity per week for six weeks. Exercise targets will be accumulated through both group and individual exercise sessions monitored by heart rate telemetry.

Control participants will not be given any instructions regarding lifestyle. The primary outcome measures are activity energy expenditure doubly labeled water and physical activity accelerometry. Secondary measures will include resting metabolic rate via indirect calorimetry, use of time, maximal oxygen consumption and several anthropometric and physiological measures. Outcome measures will be conducted at baseline zero weeks , mid- and end-intervention three and six weeks with three 12 weeks and six month 24 week follow-up.

All assessors will be blinded to group allocation. This protocol. Full Text Available This paper analyzes common confusions involving basic concepts in statistical hypothesis testing. We infer that a large proportion of social scientists are being miseducated about these concepts.

We analyze the causes of these persistent misunderstandings, and conclude that the conventional terminology is prone to abuse because it does not clearly represent the conditional nature of probabilities and events involved. We argue that modifications in terminology, as well as the explicit introduction of conditional probability concepts and notation into the statistics curriculum in the social sciences, are necessary to prevent the persistence of these errors.

Graphic tests of Easterlin's hypothesis : science or art? Richard Easterlin believes that the postwar fertility cycle is uniquely consistent with the hypothesis of his relative income model of fertility, yet a closer examination of his evidence shows that the case for the relative income explanation is much weaker than initially appears. Easterlin finds the postwar baby boom a transparent event. Couples who entered the labor market in the postwar period have very low material aspirations.

Their labor market experience was very good. Tight restrictions on immigration kept aliens from coming in to fill the gap. Thus the members of his generation occupied an unprecedented position. They could easily meet and even exceed their expectations. This high level of relative income meant that they could have more of everything they wanted, including children.

For the children born during the baby boom, all this was reversed, and hence the needs of the baby bust were sown. To test this hypothesis , Easterlin compared the movements of relative income and fertility over the postwar years using a graph. The graph shows that relative income and fertility did move together over the cycle, apparently very closely. Easterlin's measure of fertility is the total fertility rate TFR. There is no such direct measure of relative income.

Easterlin develops 2 proxies based on changing economic conditions believed to shape the level of material aspirations. His preferred measure, labeled R or income in his graph, relates the income experience of young couples in the years previous to marriage to that of their parents in the years before the young people left home.

Because of the available data limit construction of this index to the years after , another measure, labeled Re or employment in Easterlin's graphs, is constructed for the pre period. This measure relates the average of. Concerns regarding a call for pluralism of information theory and hypothesis testing. Lukacs, P. Stephens et al. We show that I-T methods are more informative even in single variable problems and we provide an ecological example.

I-T methods allow inferences to be made from multiple models simultaneously. We believe multimodel inference is the future of data analysis, which cannot be achieved with null hypothesis-testing approaches. We argue for a stronger emphasis on critical thinking in science in general and less reliance on exploratory data analysis and data dredging.

Deriving alternative hypotheses is central to science; deriving a single interesting science hypothesis and then comparing it to a default null hypothesis e. We think this single- hypothesis strategy has been relied upon too often in the past. We clarify misconceptions presented by Stephens et al.

We think inference should be made about models, directly linked to scientific hypotheses, and their parameters conditioned on data, Prob Hj data. I-T methods provide a basis for this inference. Null hypothesis testing merely provides a probability statement about the data conditioned on a null model, Prob data H0.

Synthesis and applications. I-T methods provide a more informative approach to inference. I-T methods provide a direct measure of evidence for or against hypotheses and a means to consider simultaneously multiple hypotheses as a basis for rigorous inference. Progress in our science can be accelerated if modern methods can be used intelligently; this includes various I-T and Bayesian methods.

Full Text Available This work addresses an important issue regarding the performance of simultaneous test procedures: the construction of multiple tests that at the same time are optimal from a statistical perspective and that also yield logically-consistent results that are easy to communicate to practitioners of statistical methods.

For instance, if hypothesis A implies hypothesis B, is it possible to create optimal testing procedures that reject A whenever they reject B? Unfortunately, several standard testing procedures fail in having such logical consistency. Although this has been deeply investigated under a frequentist perspective, the literature lacks analyses under a Bayesian paradigm.

In this work, we contribute to the discussion by investigating three rational relationships under a Bayesian decision-theoretic standpoint: coherence, invertibility and union consonance. We characterize and illustrate through simple examples optimal Bayes tests that fulfill each of these requisites separately.

We also explore how far one can go by putting these requirements together. We show that although fairly intuitive tests satisfy both coherence and invertibility, no Bayesian testing scheme meets the desiderata as a whole, strengthening the understanding that logical consistency cannot be combined with statistical optimality in general. Finally, we associate Bayesian hypothesis testing with Bayes point estimation procedures.

We prove the performance of logically-consistent hypothesis testing by means of a Bayes point estimator to be optimal only under very restrictive conditions. Objectives: This research aimed to identify incidents of mothers in Italy killing their own children and to test an adaptive evolutionary hypothesis to explain their occurrence.

Methods : cases of mothers killing of their own offspring from to were analyzed. Each case was classified using 13 dichotomic variables. Hypothesis testing of a change point during cognitive decline among Alzheimer's disease patients. In this paper, we present a statistical hypothesis test for detecting a change point over the course of cognitive decline among Alzheimer's disease patients. The model under the null hypothesis assumes a constant rate of cognitive decline over time and the model under the alternative hypothesis is a general bilinear model with an unknown change point.

When the change point is unknown, however, the null distribution of the test statistics is not analytically tractable and has to be simulated by parametric bootstrap. When the alternative hypothesis that a change point exists is accepted, we propose an estimate of its location based on the Akaike's Information Criterion. We applied our method to a data set from the Neuropsychological Database Initiative by implementing our hypothesis testing method to analyze Mini Mental Status Exam scores based on a random-slope and random-intercept model with a bilinear fixed effect.

Our finding supports the clinical belief of the existence of a change point during cognitive decline among AD patients and suggests the use of change point models for the longitudinal modeling of cognitive decline in AD research. Parameter estimation and hypothesis testing in linear models. The necessity to publish the second edition of this book arose when its third German edition had just been published. A few examples have been also added.

I thank Springer-Verlag for publishing this second edition and for the assistance in checking the translation, although the responsibility of errors remains with the author. I also want to express my thanks Two fundamental questions persist in the debate over the YDIH: Can the results of analyses for purported impact indicators be reproduced? A test reported here presents the results of analyses that address these questions.

Rothmann et al. A fraction retention hypothesis is defined as a ratio of the new treatment effect verse the control effect in the context of a time to event endpoint. One of the major concerns using this method in the design of an NI trial is that with a limited sample size, the power of the study is usually very low.

This makes an NI trial not applicable particularly when using time to event endpoint. To improve power, Wang et al. Under a strong assumption equal variance of the NI test statistic under null and alternative hypotheses , the sample size using Wang's test was much smaller than that using Rothmann's test. However, in practice, the assumption of equal variance is generally questionable for an NI trial design. This assumption is removed in the ratio test proposed in this article, which is derived directly from a Cauchy-like ratio distribution.

In addition, using this method , the fundamental assumption used in Rothmann's test , that the observed control effect is always positive, that is, the observed hazard ratio for placebo over the control is greater than 1, is no longer necessary. Without assuming equal variance under null and alternative hypotheses, the sample size required for an NI trial can be significantly reduced if using the proposed ratio test for a fraction retention NI hypothesis.

Surveys introductory business and economics statistics textbooks and finds that they differ over the best way to explain one-tailed hypothesis tests : the simple null- hypothesis approach or the composite null- hypothesis approach. Argues that the composite null- hypothesis approach contains methodological shortcomings that make it more difficult for….

Presents two experiments concerning confirmatory bias in the way counselors collect data to test their hypotheses. I'm fairly sure that can't be right. Mathmatetical proof that that system works. Damn,and its a bank Holiday here in the States.

Guess I can wait til tomorrow to break open the IRA.. Hope none of you non-Americans beat me to it. If you didn't appreciate MLK before, you should now. You are confusing losing,and winning. With the losses,they accumilate,winnings don't as they are on the line,not banked. Do you really think this system won't work?

Can't imagine why not. Seriously though,my whole point was that it seems strange that folks always come up with the double after you lose path to fortune,rather than doubling after wins. They are willing to risk much to win a little,but not willing to risk much to win more. Wonder what Freud and Jung would say about that? How am I confusing winning with losing?

Seems pretty straightforward. Whyare you adding up the winnings. When you lose,you need to replace your bet. When you win,all you are doing is letting in ride. As you are not taking money off the table,your bet is the entire amount,unlike when you lose you have your bet plus the amount already lost. But the chances of it happening on your first sequence would be 1 in several hundred.

If it happened anytime in sequences you'd either come out ahead or break even on the th sequence. The odds are better than Keno. You're wrong. Please, someone help me out with this. My first post to this list. Just joined today. Thought I would share my experience with progressive betting.

I am 61 years old and have been playing BJ for 40 years off and on. Mostly off. Won't play online insufficient oversight. My betting stratagy is to approximately double on lose and flat bet on wins. On a table I would bet if losing and 5 when winning. Found a single deck table with limits, dealer hits on soft 17, double on any first two cards or after split, split any pair.

Thats the most I've ever been down. I have had several college courses on probability and statistics and I've never let that stop me from gambling. There's another factor to be considered that they call "luck". Even you guys who count cards need a little luck on your side to win. I'll keep an open mind as I read your messages on this list and I hope to learn something new. Suppose I only have one chip when I sit down. I win,let it ride,win and let it ride,how much do I have?

If I let it ride again,I have I started with only one chip,have no chips except what I'm betting and can double my bet only by leaving my winnings in the circle. A loss wipes me out,negating all wins during the sequence. I'm not sure how I can make this any simpler. You win 10, you're up 15 You now have 20 let it ride bet 20 and win again. You win 20, you're up 35 You now have 40 let it ride bet 40 and win again. You win 40, you're up 75 You now have 80 let it ride bet 80 " ".

You win 80, you're up You now have As a matter of fact, forget all this "let it ride" stuff. Simple math. This will be my last post on this subject. If someone would like to take over, be my guest. Great, thanks for your help Grifter. He said sarcastically. Hopefully,nobody is taking anything in this thread very seriously.

I'm certainly not about to try this in real life,or even waste my time runnimng a simulation of it. My whole point was just to wonder why everyone chooses to focus on recovering their losses,rather thanpursue possible winnings. In a Martingale,if you lose your final bet,you lose not only that bet,but also all the money lost on bets prior to it. Though I imagine the comps are better if you keep reaching levels 6 and 7 before losing.

If that is your point,Leon,I agree.

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