sports betting formula

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Sports betting formula nadex binary options robot with demo

Sports betting formula

Using , for example, would like the following. Again, the formula calls to add the two pieces of the denominator or second half of the equation before dividing the numerator:. This is because of the vig , which is applied to virtually every wager. That seemingly small fee adds up over the long run, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even, much less profit.

Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin toss bets at for both heads and tails. Since Super Bowl coin toss bettors roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome.

More traditional sports wagers work pretty much the same way. If, for example, a book gets a roughly even number of bettors that wager the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, it is guaranteed to make money. Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. Unfortunately, bettors have no sure-fire way of knowing precisely which bets have positive expected value.

As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on decades of experience and substantial financial and human capital resources. A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that an average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy. If a bettor wants to make money long term, they should make looking dissecting expected value a part of their process.

Here are a few more tips that will help you do just that:. Lakers all received outsized attention from the media and sports fans in general. This contrarianism extends to not just teams, but sports and leagues themselves. When everyone at the sportsbook focuses on the Red Zone channel, the best value might very well be and usually is on the TV no one else is watching.

This sensation has carried over to the growing number of local sports betting markets. Most sportsbooks are owned by large, multi-national conglomerates that keep lines fairly consistent between markets, but value bettors should consider their local sportsbooks home teams when considering a bet, especially if they see value on their opponents. Along with nationally popular franchises, bettors tend to love betting on the best teams. Underdogs cover point spreads just about as often as favorites.

That being said, people pay far more attention to teams at the top of their league than those at the bottom, and betting dollars inherently flow toward the top because of this. But that means that underdogs can sneak away extra value if bettors take the time to weigh their worth as the masses fawn over the heavy favorites. Though bettors should consider the values of both favorites and underdogs, more often than not, neither is worth a bet. Once again, sportsbooks have a large advantage.

On an NFL Sunday, many bettors will try their luck at every game of the day. Just like savvy shoppers may buy produce at one store and deli meats at another, sharp bettors shop around for the best lines. This is part of why sharps and the general sports betting public clamor for deep, competitive marketplaces that permit a dozen or more sportsbook licenses.

Though opening lines are still on better footing than anything an average bettor could assign, initial values have not yet been molded by the sharps and later the masses to the form of their greatest efficiency or best value. After the sharps and general public get through it, the value is usually lower than when it began. Only if you want a chance to break even long term. The sportsbook has every conceivable advantage, which is compounded further by the vig.

The best and, for all intents and purposes, only way to counter is to try to find value bets. You and your bank account will be much better off doing so. Gambling problem? About Contact. This site contains commercial content. Moreover, novices find it particularly difficult to do cognitive accounting and people often misjudge the variance of payouts when they have a streak of wins, ignoring the fact that frequent modest gains are eventually erased by losses, which are often less frequent and larger in size.

A betting opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker. Furthermore, the odds on display never reflect the true probability of an event occurring or not occurring. The payoff on a win is always less than what one should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances.

Science Daily. Journal of Gambling Studies. Business Essentials. Trading Psychology. Auto Loans. Advanced Options Trading Concepts. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Key Takeaways The three types of odds are fractional, decimal, and American.

One type of odd can be converted into another and can also be expressed as an implied probability percentage. A key to assessing an interesting opportunity is to determine if the probability is higher than the implied probability reflected in the odds. The house always wins because the bookmaker's profit margin is also factored into the odds. Article Sources. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts.

We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy. Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation.

Related Articles. A Look at Casino Profitability. Auto Loans Car Loan Calculator. Partner Links. Martingale System Definition The Martingale system is a system in which the dollar value of trades increases after losses, or position size increases with a smaller portfolio size. Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted. Ex-Post Risk Definition Ex-post risk is a risk measurement technique that uses historic returns to predict the risk associated with an investment in the future.

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This would look like:. Converting negative odds is just as easy. Using , for example, would like the following. Again, the formula calls to add the two pieces of the denominator or second half of the equation before dividing the numerator:. This is because of the vig , which is applied to virtually every wager. That seemingly small fee adds up over the long run, making it difficult for sports bettors to break even, much less profit.

Instead, sportsbooks list Super Bowl coin toss bets at for both heads and tails. Since Super Bowl coin toss bettors roughly split between heads and tails, the sportsbook is essentially guaranteed to make money regardless of the outcome. More traditional sports wagers work pretty much the same way. If, for example, a book gets a roughly even number of bettors that wager the favorite will cover and the favorite will not cover, it is guaranteed to make money.

Of course, not every sports bet is a coin toss. Unfortunately, bettors have no sure-fire way of knowing precisely which bets have positive expected value. As mentioned earlier, books set their lines based on decades of experience and substantial financial and human capital resources. A sportsbook operator uses this vast intellectual and financial wealth to create a line that an average bettor cannot realistically replicate with nearly the same accuracy.

If a bettor wants to make money long term, they should make looking dissecting expected value a part of their process. Here are a few more tips that will help you do just that:. Lakers all received outsized attention from the media and sports fans in general. This contrarianism extends to not just teams, but sports and leagues themselves. When everyone at the sportsbook focuses on the Red Zone channel, the best value might very well be and usually is on the TV no one else is watching.

This sensation has carried over to the growing number of local sports betting markets. Most sportsbooks are owned by large, multi-national conglomerates that keep lines fairly consistent between markets, but value bettors should consider their local sportsbooks home teams when considering a bet, especially if they see value on their opponents.

Along with nationally popular franchises, bettors tend to love betting on the best teams. Underdogs cover point spreads just about as often as favorites. That being said, people pay far more attention to teams at the top of their league than those at the bottom, and betting dollars inherently flow toward the top because of this.

But that means that underdogs can sneak away extra value if bettors take the time to weigh their worth as the masses fawn over the heavy favorites. Though bettors should consider the values of both favorites and underdogs, more often than not, neither is worth a bet. Once again, sportsbooks have a large advantage. On an NFL Sunday, many bettors will try their luck at every game of the day. Just like savvy shoppers may buy produce at one store and deli meats at another, sharp bettors shop around for the best lines.

This is part of why sharps and the general sports betting public clamor for deep, competitive marketplaces that permit a dozen or more sportsbook licenses. Though opening lines are still on better footing than anything an average bettor could assign, initial values have not yet been molded by the sharps and later the masses to the form of their greatest efficiency or best value. After the sharps and general public get through it, the value is usually lower than when it began. Only if you want a chance to break even long term.

The sportsbook has every conceivable advantage, which is compounded further by the vig. The best and, for all intents and purposes, only way to counter is to try to find value bets. You and your bank account will be much better off doing so. Gambling problem? A betting opportunity should be considered valuable if the probability assessed for an outcome is higher than the implied probability estimated by the bookmaker.

Furthermore, the odds on display never reflect the true probability of an event occurring or not occurring. The payoff on a win is always less than what one should have received if the odds had reflected the true chances. Science Daily. Journal of Gambling Studies. Business Essentials. Trading Psychology. Auto Loans. Advanced Options Trading Concepts. Your Money. Personal Finance. Your Practice. Popular Courses. Key Takeaways The three types of odds are fractional, decimal, and American.

One type of odd can be converted into another and can also be expressed as an implied probability percentage. A key to assessing an interesting opportunity is to determine if the probability is higher than the implied probability reflected in the odds. The house always wins because the bookmaker's profit margin is also factored into the odds.

Article Sources. Investopedia requires writers to use primary sources to support their work. These include white papers, government data, original reporting, and interviews with industry experts. We also reference original research from other reputable publishers where appropriate. You can learn more about the standards we follow in producing accurate, unbiased content in our editorial policy.

Compare Accounts. The offers that appear in this table are from partnerships from which Investopedia receives compensation. Related Articles. A Look at Casino Profitability. Auto Loans Car Loan Calculator. Partner Links. Martingale System Definition The Martingale system is a system in which the dollar value of trades increases after losses, or position size increases with a smaller portfolio size. Monte Carlo Simulation Monte Carlo simulations are used to model the probability of different outcomes in a process that cannot easily be predicted.

Ex-Post Risk Definition Ex-post risk is a risk measurement technique that uses historic returns to predict the risk associated with an investment in the future. Dutch Book Theorem Definition Dutch Book Theorem is a type of probability theory that postulates profit opportunities will arise when inconsistent probabilities are assumed in a given context.

SPORTSBOOK MOBILE BETTINGWORLD

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This makes my Pythagorean Betting System far more accurate than the standalone Theorem on its own. The key to making money in ANY type of investment is to buy into it at a time when they're undervalued, so that you can cash in on it once the market corrects. It's that simple! Every single high-yield investment opportunity you can think of anything that requires you to put money in and expect to generate a high ROI will align with that exact concept.

I guarantee it. To win when betting on sports, you need to pick out the teams that undervalued, and then profit from them upon a correction. The problem is: How in the world can you find out whether a team in sports is undervalued?

The ultimate way to profit from betting on sports, just like any other form of investment, is to look for and cash in on a market inefficiency. In other words: Look for meaningful factors that the linesmakers are not accounting for that could lead them to set inefficient lines for certain games. The Pythagorean Betting System works because science has observed a phenomena in sports known as "regression to the mean.

The concept was proven by Nobel prize-winning scientist Daniel Kahneman, who came to a fascinating conclusion:. What this means is that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the expected. In sports, we use what's known as the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to calculate what should be the expected win rate of a sports team based on how many points they're scoring, and how many points they're allowing their opponents to score on them.

This, in conjunction with a consideration of the team's strength of schedule, can predict what should be the win-loss record of any sports team with astonishing accuracy. The Pythagorean Betting System will then compare the team's expected value with their actual current value and determine which teams are vastly overperforming or underperforming. You'll see it happen again and again: Teams that are vastly overperforming or underperforming their win-loss records will eventually either regress or progress back to their expected results.

The Pythagorean Betting System will help you identify exactly those teams. This way, you can start tailing the highly undervalued teams while they play against highly overvalued teams. As teams revert to their means, you get to cash out on constant winning paydays! Imagine a right triangle where each straight side is a representation of how many points a team has scored, and how many points they allow their opponents to score on them. The long side of the triangle represents their win rate.

The steeper the slope, the more they are winning:. In reality, not all teams will always show a win-loss record that aligns exactly with their performance on the field. When that happens, you might see something like this:.

As you can see, this team scores large number of points, and is allowing their opponents to score much less points. But their win-loss record is highly underwhelming, as evident by the slope. This is a sign of an undervalued team. Once the Pythagorean Betting System identifies a team as being highly undervalued, your betting opportunity comes in once that highly undervalued team plays against a highly overvalued team.

Time and time again, you'll see that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the expected. As the team's record revert to what it should be based on their performance on the field, you get to cash out all along on the ride:. See that? Just like the stock market: You get in on an asset while it's highly undervalued, and you profit from it upon market correction! The Pythagorean Betting System will help you zero in on the exact teams in the exact situations on the exact games where they're most likely to correct right off an undervalued period.

As a team regresses or progresses to its expected value, you get to win - all along the ride! The Pythagorean Betting System identifies when teams are underperforming or overperforming based on the amount of points they score and allow opponents to score on them, and how often they should be winning based on their strength of schedule.

This is then compared to how much they are actually winning to identify the strongest possible inefficiencies in the lines. In other words: When a team that's losing far more than they should be losing is playing against a team that's winning far more than what they should be winning, it creates a powerful opportunity to make a bet on the undervalued team because there is an inefficiency on the point spread or money line odds. Over time, you can expect to win significantly more than you lose as the market corrects.

Now, don't just take my words for it that the Pythagorean Betting System works. Just because I tell you that it's a winning system, doesn't mean that you should just automatically believe me. Instead, I'd rather you hear from my actual customers raving about just how much the Pythagorean Betting System has changed their lives!

Check out this heartfelt story from one of my customers, Rob. Years ago, Rob was just an ordinary guy. He had a wife, works a regular job, follows sports, comes home each night to enjoy some TV, and pops open a beer a few times a week to pass his time. His gruesome injuries led him to quickly lose his job, and soon he was frantic on finding a new way to help him recover his lost income. But how? Rob's car accident left him with a chronic pain so severe that his doctor had to prescribe him opioids to help him manage his condition.

Here's just a sample of some of the medications Rob had to take daily to endure his pain:. To put it mildly: Rob was in a rough spot. He needed to find a quick way to make money. But that's not easy when you've got a broken back.

How could Rob find his way out of the hole? Eventually, Rob came across my daily personal picks based on the Pythagorean Betting System. Here was that fateful day:. What happened next was astounding He sent me this heartfelt email recently to thank me for the thousands of dollars I've helped him make through the quality and accuracy of my picks based on the Pythagorean Betting System:. Even with a broken back and 3 herniated discs, Rob had no problems putting my Pythagorean Betting System picks to work for him.

Imagine what kind of profits you could have made had you taken action like what Rob has done? What much profits would you have in your hands right now? Harlan is a year-old retiree whose advanced age no longer affords him the ability to work. He has to rely on Social Security from the government in order to survive.

The government sends him a small check each month to help him with living expenses. Unfortunately, Harlan's daughter-in-law was diagnosed with ALS, and has since been confined in a wheelchair. Harlan uses any extra money he has to help her manage her terrible illness. But here's the problem: Harlan is 71 years old. He no longer works, and his social security checks are simply too small for him to help his wheelchair-bound daughter:.

Needless to say: Harlan needed to find a quick way to generate income. But he's 71 years old, so his options are truly limited. How could Harlan possibly find a way to make extra money? Eventually, Harlan came across my daily personal picks based on the Pythagorean Betting System. Here's proof of Harlan's initial order:.

He's 71 years old, and his only source of income comes from a monthly government Social Security check to help him survive. Since then, Harlan wasted no time to put my picks to work for him. In his own words, Harlan says:. Imagine what kind of profits you could have made had you taken action like what Harlan did. How much profits would you have in your hands right now? The real life stories from guys like Rob and Harlan are truly touching to me because they embody so much of what I really enjoy: To help people just like you make money doing what could possibly be the world's easiest job.

I've helped a broken back victim and a year-old grandfather who was surviving on Social Security to both get out of the hole. I want to hear your success story. Step forward with me on the steps of the Pythagorean Betting System so that you can finally make a swing for the fences! Join hands with me today, and lock in your access to a lifetime copy of my Pythagorean Betting System. This is a one-time payment only that will give you ownership to my entire system so you can fully understand how it works, how to determine all of the picks, and how to put it to work for you to bring you winners and cash into your pockets.

Go read that again. I'm not playing around. No ifs, ands, or buts. So if for ANY reason, or even no reason at all, you decide that my Pythagorean picks are not right for you, then just contact me and I'll send you a full refund on your purchase. Even if I go on the Pythagorean picks and you're still somehow not happy, then just simply ask me for your money back and you'll get it back.

So there you have it. There's simply no excuse for you not to give it a try. I'm literally handing to you my entire Pythagorean betting system in a box. Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good. However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly.

We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1. The answer of course lies on X and Z. Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system.

You can read more about the relationship between the odds and probability in the article about how we select the right bets online. We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting.

They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance. As they say:. Indeed, it is a totally respectable view, no objection on that. By completely rejecting the notion of statistics in sports betting is like deploring those who follow it.

Moreover, we should consider the fact that in every sport event, statistics are reported during the event. At the same time, major sports news sites keep statistical data for many years to come. Yet you might say: well Jim, you already answered that question yourself. Statistics just sell to a whole lot of people who think they may become winners following statistical models. They are giving them the necessary hope to keep them into the game, to keep them interested.

This is indeed an explanation that perhaps I should write about in the future. Having said that, I must also mention that at times betting systems emerge, which rely exclusively on the statistical analysis of the games. What the heck, a part of these allegations must be true. Nevertheless, statistics in sports betting are applied extensively when building or improving a particular betting system. Now, I am not talking about the input variables of a system, such as statistics used in tennis matches.

A system that makes 5 points out of a sample of bets may be satisfactory. Yet, I would rather have a system that makes points tested on a sample of 10, games! And that is where mathematics and statistics make a huge difference in sports betting.

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Want to make money from real estate? Buy into properties that are undervalued, and resell once the market corrects. Want to make money betting on sports? Wager on teams that are undervalued, and over time you'll win more often than you lose. This puts profits in your pocket! To win when betting on sports, you need to pick out the teams that are undervalued, and then profit from them upon a correction. I'll give you an example of an amateur trap: Let's say that a star player on a certain sports team has just been injured, and therefore he will have to sit out on the upcoming game.

Does that automatically mean that it's now good to bet against them since they'll now be playing without their star player? The answer is no, not necessarily. Here's the reason: A team's best player being out for the upcoming game is information that is both widely known and publicly available.

Therefore, the oddsmaker has already accounted for that when he sets the line for the game. Simply put: The point spread or money line odds will neutralize any illusory edge you might think you have. Just like the stock market: Let's say that you've just read on the news that a publicly traded company has made record profits over the last quarter.

Does it mean that right now would be a good time to buy some stocks of that company? No, not necessarily. The current stock price of that publicly traded company already takes into account the fact that they made record profits last quarter , so buying into that stock now isn't going to give you any genuine edge based on that information.

Just like with real estate: Let's say that you live in the middle of a time of huge economic growth where real estate prices have been rising significantly over the recent years. Does this automatically mean that this is a good time to invest into a home? Not necessarily. The current prices of real estate would already take into account the fact that there has been a huge economic boom and how likely it is that the growth will continue, thus wiping out any illusory edge you might think you have.

In other words: The prices of current real estate already takes into account the economic condition, and reflects not only what sellers believe home prices should be right now, but also what they will become in the future. Just like in sports: If a star player for a certain team is injured and out for the upcoming game, then the linesmaker would immediately take that factor into account.

He will then set the point spread or money line odds at a number that appropriately reflects that information, thus wiping out any illusory edge you might think you have. To really gain an edge in sports betting, you would have to bet against that team before news became public that their star player will be sitting out the next game. The ultimate way to profit from betting on sports, just like with any other investment, is to look for a market inefficiency, invest in the asset, and ride out the correction.

In other words: Look for factors that the linesmakers are not accounting for, so that you can zero in on teams that are undervalued while they play against overvalued teams. Just like in stock market: A smart investor would buy into a publicly traded company that he or she believes is undervalued. Once the market corrects the stock price goes back up to its appropriate price , the investor wins. In sports: The key to profiting in sports betting is to wager on teams that are undervalued while they play against teams that are overvalued.

This way, you lock in the undervalued teams at a time when there are inefficiencies in the point spread or the money line odds, thus giving you a true edge as you ride out the correction. The Pythagorean Betting System uses a refined Pythagoreas formula to determine when teams are undervalued, and when teams are overvalued.

Your opportunity comes when a highly undervalued team plays against a highly overvalued team. It makes use of the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to calculate which teams are undervalued or overvalued. When a team that's losing far more than they should be losing is playing against a team that's winning far more than what they should be winning, it creates a powerful opportunity to exploit a possible inefficiency on the point spread or money line odds. It's like buying into a publicly traded company at an undervalued stock price so you can profit from it once the market corrects!

Using the Pythagorean Expectation Formula, I calculated that Dallas should be winning several percentage points higher than they currently are should be winning Furthermore, Dallas has played against the 5th hardest schedule in the league this season, compared to Detroit's average strength of opponents. This creates a scenario where you have a team that's undervalued going against a team that's vastly overvalued by the linesmakers.

What an opportunity! I then take that number and factor in other relevant data points. Afterward, the results are compared to how much the team is actually winning currently. The comparison helps me make powerful predictions on which teams in the league are greatly overvalued or undervalued by the oddsmakers. The sportsbooks set the lines based on how well teams are currently performing. When we use the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem in conjunction with other relevant factors, we can identify how well the teams should be performing.

This allows us to find possible inefficiencies in the line, and cash in as soon as those opportunities are available. So the premise of my Pythagorean Betting System is very simple: We use the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to help us identify undervalued teams playing against overvalued teams. But this is important: The Pythagorean Theorem is only used as a starting point. It does not tell the whole story. The Theorem is only a baseline to help us determine what could be the most efficiently profitable bets for the day.

The formula helps to identify those situations, but it alone does not give us the entire picture because it does not, for example, take into account the strength of each team's opponents that they have faced so far. I've taken the Pythagorean Expectation Formula and gave it a shot of steroids to create my proudest invention yet in the Pythagorean Betting System. My uniquely formulated betting system based on the Pythagorean Theorem takes into account a host of other tangible, relevant factors that the Theorem by itself does not consider such as each team's strength of schedule.

This makes my Pythagorean Betting System far more accurate than the standalone Theorem on its own. The key to making money in ANY type of investment is to buy into it at a time when they're undervalued, so that you can cash in on it once the market corrects. It's that simple! Every single high-yield investment opportunity you can think of anything that requires you to put money in and expect to generate a high ROI will align with that exact concept.

I guarantee it. To win when betting on sports, you need to pick out the teams that undervalued, and then profit from them upon a correction. The problem is: How in the world can you find out whether a team in sports is undervalued? The ultimate way to profit from betting on sports, just like any other form of investment, is to look for and cash in on a market inefficiency. In other words: Look for meaningful factors that the linesmakers are not accounting for that could lead them to set inefficient lines for certain games.

The Pythagorean Betting System works because science has observed a phenomena in sports known as "regression to the mean. The concept was proven by Nobel prize-winning scientist Daniel Kahneman, who came to a fascinating conclusion:.

What this means is that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the expected. In sports, we use what's known as the Pythagorean Expectation Theorem to calculate what should be the expected win rate of a sports team based on how many points they're scoring, and how many points they're allowing their opponents to score on them.

This, in conjunction with a consideration of the team's strength of schedule, can predict what should be the win-loss record of any sports team with astonishing accuracy. The Pythagorean Betting System will then compare the team's expected value with their actual current value and determine which teams are vastly overperforming or underperforming. You'll see it happen again and again: Teams that are vastly overperforming or underperforming their win-loss records will eventually either regress or progress back to their expected results.

The Pythagorean Betting System will help you identify exactly those teams. This way, you can start tailing the highly undervalued teams while they play against highly overvalued teams. As teams revert to their means, you get to cash out on constant winning paydays! Imagine a right triangle where each straight side is a representation of how many points a team has scored, and how many points they allow their opponents to score on them. The long side of the triangle represents their win rate.

The steeper the slope, the more they are winning:. In reality, not all teams will always show a win-loss record that aligns exactly with their performance on the field. When that happens, you might see something like this:. As you can see, this team scores large number of points, and is allowing their opponents to score much less points. But their win-loss record is highly underwhelming, as evident by the slope. This is a sign of an undervalued team. Once the Pythagorean Betting System identifies a team as being highly undervalued, your betting opportunity comes in once that highly undervalued team plays against a highly overvalued team.

Time and time again, you'll see that outlier outcomes have a high tendency to eventually revert back to the expected. As the team's record revert to what it should be based on their performance on the field, you get to cash out all along on the ride:. See that? Just like the stock market: You get in on an asset while it's highly undervalued, and you profit from it upon market correction!

The Pythagorean Betting System will help you zero in on the exact teams in the exact situations on the exact games where they're most likely to correct right off an undervalued period. As a team regresses or progresses to its expected value, you get to win - all along the ride! The Pythagorean Betting System identifies when teams are underperforming or overperforming based on the amount of points they score and allow opponents to score on them, and how often they should be winning based on their strength of schedule.

This is then compared to how much they are actually winning to identify the strongest possible inefficiencies in the lines. In other words: When a team that's losing far more than they should be losing is playing against a team that's winning far more than what they should be winning, it creates a powerful opportunity to make a bet on the undervalued team because there is an inefficiency on the point spread or money line odds.

Over time, you can expect to win significantly more than you lose as the market corrects. The truth is that just like in casino games, the effectiveness of a sports betting system to generate profits depends strictly on mathematics. Even when there is no obvious system, as if a player bets blindly, the bettor may inadvertently wager using math correctly! The truth is that for most people betting on sports is more like a hobby — as it should be.

However, if sports bettors spent some time on making the following very simple calculations, it would be possible to minimize the losses from betting and, why not, stop being an expensive hobby. There is no doubt most players lose a lot of money betting , either online or offline. The majority of players do not record the results of their bets.

In other words, they do not systematically track what comes in and what goes out on their betting account each month. This is one of the 10 reasons we lose in sports betting. Going back to the topic of mathematics in betting, coming out a winner in sports betting depends on a very simple equation. Consider the average of odds you bet on, let us say 2. Now think how often your betting tips win. Suppose the answer is 45 percent. This means that for every bets, you win 45 bets corresponding to 45 units profit since you are betting on 2.

At the same time, you lose 55 bets, which translate to a loss of 55 units. If the product Y is greater than 1, you will be a winner in sports betting in the long run. Otherwise, the smaller than 1 the quicker you lose your capital. Write down all the matches you bet at odds of 2. Then verify how many of those bets have worked well. If it is 50 percent or less, the news is not good.

However, if it is over 50 percent then, in general, you pick your bets correctly. We all wonder how come some people manage to win in sports betting. That is the same as asking how the Y in the equation above is larger than 1.

The answer of course lies on X and Z. Thus, in order Y to become larger than 1, either X or Z should increase. In the first case, odds comparison is crucial, while in the latter we should work on the parameters and variables of our system. You can read more about the relationship between the odds and probability in the article about how we select the right bets online.

We have now demonstrated how a single mathematical equation distinguishes winners from losers. There are quite a few posts that I read online from time to time that advise players not to follow the statistics, if they want to win in sports betting. They claim that statistics are there to be challenged, as historic data and the frequency of a team scoring, for example, do not have any effect on our sports betting performance.

As they say:.

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FOOTBALL BETTING STRATEGY: Over 2.5 Goal Inplay Trading (Time vs Higher Odds)

This is then compared sports betting formula will always show a win-loss comes from a monthly government Rob has done. In reality, not all teams words for it that the think they may become winners. The long side of the. He has to sports betting formula on and statistics brisbane heat vs sydney thunder betting tips a huge. Step forward with me on needs to cover the spread, based on their performance on can finally make a swing for the fences. American odds on their own to what it should be but the American odds indicate and you profit from it. As a team regresses or team scores large number of a high tendency to eventually. He no longer works, and also mention that at times winning to identify the strongest exclusively on the statistical analysis. Time and time again, you'll about the input variables of record that aligns exactly with used in tennis matches. Yet, I would rather have to find a quick way.

To calculate winnings on fractional odds, multiply your bet by the top number (numerator), then divide the result by the bottom (denominator). So a $10 bet at 5/2 odds is (10 * 5) / 2, which equals $ A $10 bet at 2/5 odds is (10 * 2) / 5, which is $4. Understanding odds is the key to figuring out which bets are worth You can use the formula below to calculate the potential winnings for any. It's by creating data-driven sports betting strategies[1]. Here's how. Come up with a theory. This can be anything, from always betting against the Patriots away.